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The triple lock explained: how the State Pension rises, what changes from 2030, and why your public sector pension is different

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Educational, not advice. This guide explains how the rules work. It doesn’t tell you what to do with your pension. For decisions that depend on your circumstances, talk to a regulated adviser or MoneyHelper.

A brass padlock with three dials reading Earnings, Inflation and 2.5%, on a kitchen table
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Short answer: the triple lock is the rule that raises the State Pension every April by whichever is highest of average earnings growth, CPI inflation or 2.5%. It covers the basic and the new State Pension. Public sector scheme pensions have never been part of it: once they are being paid, they rise by inflation alone. In April 2027 the triple lock gives the State Pension 3.9%, while public service pensions are due to rise by 3.5%. From April 2030 the government plans to change how the earnings part works.

Most explanations of the triple lock are written for people whose only pension is the State Pension. If you also have an NHS, Teachers’, Civil Service, Local Government, Police, Firefighters’ or Armed Forces pension, those answers skip two things: the triple lock moves only part of your retirement income, and the change planned for 2030 leaves your scheme pension alone.

In short

  • The triple lock raises the basic and new State Pension each April by the highest of earnings growth, CPI inflation or 2.5%.
  • In April 2027 earnings growth wins at 3.9%, taking the full new State Pension to £13,036.40 a year, about £250.70 a week.
  • Public sector pensions in payment rise by September’s CPI under separate legislation. For April 2027 that is 3.5%. There is no earnings test and no 2.5% floor.
  • The triple lock continues as it is up to and including April 2029. From April 2030 the government plans an adjusted version that stops the State Pension pulling ahead of earnings, while keeping the inflation and 2.5% protections.
  • The change is not law yet. The government says it will legislate during this Parliament.

What is the triple lock?

The Department for Work and Pensions describes it like this: “The Triple Lock means the basic State Pension (bSP) and the full rate of the new State Pension (nSP) increase by the highest of: inflation (the rise in the consumer price index) 2.5% earnings”.

Each test has a fixed measure:

  • Earnings: the annual growth in average weekly earnings across Great Britain, total pay including bonuses, for May to July, published by the Office for National Statistics in September.
  • Inflation: the Consumer Prices Index for the 12 months to September, published in October.
  • The floor: a flat 2.5%, used when both of the others come in lower.

Only part of the triple lock is in law. Section 150A of the Social Security Administration Act 1992 requires the basic and new State Pension to rise at least in line with earnings each year. The inflation test and the 2.5% floor are a government commitment on top of that. As the House of Commons Library puts it, “the Government is committed to increasing it according to the ‘triple lock’”. A government can drop those two by decision. Overriding the earnings link takes an Act of Parliament, which is what happened for April 2022: the earnings figure had been distorted by pay recovering after furlough, and the Social Security (Up-rating of Benefits) Act 2021 had that year’s review use prices instead.

The lock also covers only the flat-rate parts of the State Pension. The additional State Pension from the old system, and any protected payment under the new one, rise by CPI instead. If you reached State Pension age before 6 April 2016, part of what you receive may be on that slower track.

The April 2027 rise: 3.9%

All three numbers for the April 2027 increase are now known:

  • Earnings: 3.9%. Average weekly earnings, total pay, May to July 2026.
  • Inflation: 3.5%. CPI, 12 months to September 2026.
  • Floor: 2.5%. Fixed.

Earnings is the highest, so it sets the State Pension increase from April 2027.

The Department for Work and Pensions confirmed on 28 October 2026 that the basic and new State Pension rise by 3.9% from 12 April 2027, adding around £490 a year to the full new State Pension. The Treasury puts the full new State Pension for 2027/28 at £13,036.40 a year, about £250.70 a week, up from £241.30 a week now. That takes it above the £12,570 personal allowance, which is why the Budget created a new Pension Tax Allowance. Our guide to how your State Pension and scheme pension are taxed as one explains what that means if you also have a public sector pension.

Does the triple lock apply to public sector pensions?

No. Public service pensions in payment, and deferred pensions you have left in a scheme, are increased under the Pensions (Increase) Act 1971 and section 59 of the Social Security Pensions Act 1975. In the Treasury’s words, they must be “increased annually by the same percentage as additional pensions”. In practice that means CPI for the 12 months to the previous September, applied from April.

Your scheme pension and your State Pension both start from the same September inflation figure, but only the State Pension can be pushed higher by earnings or by the 2.5% floor. If CPI were ever negative, your scheme pension would not rise: the Act has no power to reduce it.

  • April 2026: State Pension up 4.8% (earnings); public service pensions up 3.8%.
  • April 2027: State Pension up 3.9% (earnings); public service pensions up 3.5% (expected).
  • From 2030: the State Pension rule is due to change; nothing announced changes public service pensions.

The 2027 public service figure is the September 2026 CPI. The Treasury confirms it formally in the spring; last year’s statement came on 26 February.

If you are still paying in, there is a third rule. Your career average pension is revalued each year by your own scheme’s formula: CPI alone in some schemes, CPI plus a fixed extra in others, and average earnings in the Firefighters’ 2015 scheme and AFPS 15. None of these is the triple lock either. Our guide to the April 2027 public service pension increase sets out every scheme’s rate.

What changes from April 2030

The Prime Minister announced the change on 29 September 2026, and the Budget on 28 October set out the detail. The triple lock stays as it is for three more increases: the Budget says the State Pension “will continue to rise by the highest of 2.5%, inflation or earnings growth each year through to April 2029”. After that the earnings test changes. From April 2030 the State Pension would rise “by the highest of 2.5%, inflation, or the amount required to maintain its value relative to earnings as reached in April 2029”.

The inflation protection stays, and so does the 2.5% floor. What goes is what the Budget calls the “ratchet”. Under today’s rules, a year in which inflation or the floor beats earnings leaves the State Pension higher relative to wages, and that gain is never given back, so over many years it climbs against earnings. Under the adjusted rule, the earnings test aims to hold the State Pension at the share of earnings it reaches in April 2029. It can still rise faster than wages in a year of high inflation, but it then gains nothing more from earnings until wages have caught up.

Made-up figures show the difference. Start with a State Pension of 100 and average earnings of 100. In year one, earnings grow 1% and inflation is 4%. Both versions raise the pension by 4%, to 104. In year two, earnings grow 4% and inflation is 1%. Today’s triple lock gives another 4%, taking the pension to 108.16. The adjusted version asks how much it takes to get back to the starting ratio with earnings, which have now reached 105.04. That would be a rise of about 1%, so the 2.5% floor applies instead, and the pension goes to 106.60.

The Office for Budget Responsibility tested the new rule against real history. Had it applied from 1990 to 2025, it says, State Pension payments “would have been on average 1.4 per cent lower each year than under the current triple lock and 4.4 per cent higher than under earnings uprating”.

What it saves, and where the money goes

The Budget estimates the change will “reduce State Pension spending by £15 billion a year by the late 2030s, and by £50 billion a year by the late 2040s”. The Department for Work and Pensions’ own analysis gives the years and the real-terms values: £15 billion in 2039 to 2040 and £50 billion in 2049 to 2050 in cash terms, or £11 billion and £30 billion at 2025 to 2026 prices. The government says the savings will help build up a National Care Service in England, providing personal care free at the point of use for older people.

The government’s announcement also said: “Nobody’s pension will ever go down.” That was already true under the triple lock, and the 2.5% floor keeps it true under the adjusted version.

Is it certain?

Not yet. The change needs legislation, and the government has said only that it “will legislate for the change during this Parliament”. No bill has been named. The Budget’s own summary describes it as adjusting the triple lock “from the next Parliament”. The Leader of the Opposition, Kemi Badenoch, has said the existing triple lock remains Conservative policy and is in the party’s draft manifesto.

Other proposals for reforming the triple lock

The government’s plan is the latest of several. The case made for change has mostly rested on cost and predictability. The Office for Budget Responsibility estimated in 2025 that the triple lock would cost £15.5 billion a year more by 2029 to 2030 than raising the State Pension with earnings alone, around three times what was expected when it began. In its 2026 report it put the extra cost compared with raising the State Pension by inflation alone at £22.9 billion a year by the same point, and noted that the inflation or 2.5% tests had been triggered in eight of the lock’s 14 years so far.

  • A smoothed earnings link. The Institute for Fiscal Studies’ Pensions Review proposed linking the State Pension to earnings over time, with protection against inflation, but without a guaranteed 2.5%. The IFS says the government’s version is similar, except that it keeps the 2.5% floor.
  • The Resolution Foundation’s options. In a June 2026 report titled What a ratchet!, it argued for a smoothed earnings link as the best replacement. Its fallback was a “smoothed” triple lock that keeps a 2.5% floor but loses the permanent ratchet. For anyone who wants the State Pension to grow faster than wages, it suggested a simpler rule such as average earnings plus 0.5% a year.
  • Waiting for the reviews. The Pensions Commission, looking at the long-term adequacy of retirement incomes, publishes its final report in February 2027. A third independent review of State Pension age has been under way since July 2025.

The IFS welcomed the government’s plan as “a big improvement” but not “the answer to funding universal social care”. It estimated that if the new rule had applied since 2011, State Pension spending this year would be £9 billion lower. It also called the 2.5% floor “an arbitrary and potentially costly part of the system”.

What it means if you have a public sector pension

Most public service pensioners draw the State Pension as well, so the triple lock still affects your total income. What changes, and what doesn’t:

  • Your scheme pension: nothing announced changes how it rises. It stays linked to September’s CPI, whatever happens to the triple lock.
  • Your State Pension up to April 2029: the triple lock as it stands.
  • Your State Pension from April 2030: under the plan, still at least inflation or 2.5%, but no longer the higher of those and earnings growth every year.
  • Tax: because your State Pension and scheme pension are taxed together, a faster-rising State Pension uses up more of your personal allowance. From April 2027 the full new State Pension is above it.
  • When it starts: in the 2015 schemes, your normal pension age is linked to State Pension age. Our guide to State Pension age and public sector pension members covers the rise to 67.

For everything else the Budget changed for scheme members, including lower employer contributions and the new Pension Tax Allowance, see Budget 2026 and public sector pensions.

Frequently asked questions

What is the pension triple lock?

It is the rule that raises the basic and new State Pension each April by the highest of three figures: average earnings growth for May to July, CPI inflation for the 12 months to September, or 2.5%. The earnings link is in law; the inflation test and the 2.5% floor are a government commitment.

Does the triple lock apply to my NHS, Teachers’ or Civil Service pension?

No. It applies to the State Pension, not to scheme pensions. Public service pensions in payment, including NHS, Teachers’, Civil Service, Local Government, Police, Firefighters’ and Armed Forces pensions, rise each April by the CPI for the 12 months to the previous September. There is no earnings test and no 2.5% floor.

How much will the State Pension go up in April 2027?

By 3.9%, from 12 April 2027, in line with average earnings growth. The Treasury puts the full new State Pension at £13,036.40 a year from April 2027, about £250.70 a week, up from £241.30 a week now.

How much will my public sector pension go up in April 2027?

By the September 2026 CPI, which was 3.5%, if your pension has been in payment for a full year. If it started part-way through the year, the first increase is smaller. The Treasury confirms the figure formally in the spring.

Is the triple lock being scrapped?

Not scrapped, but the government plans to change it. It continues unchanged through April 2029. From April 2030 the State Pension would rise by the highest of 2.5%, inflation, or the amount needed to keep its value relative to earnings at the level reached in April 2029. The change still needs legislation.

Could my State Pension go down under the new rule?

No. The adjusted version keeps the 2.5% minimum, so the State Pension would still rise every year by at least 2.5% or inflation, whichever is higher.

Pension Plain’s take

Most triple lock coverage treats the State Pension as the whole of someone’s retirement income. For a public service pensioner it is usually the smaller part, and the larger part has never had a triple lock. Your scheme pension has followed CPI since 2011, with no earnings test and no floor, and nothing announced in 2026 changes that.

The 2030 change is about the State Pension’s earnings test, and its effect is felt over decades rather than next April: a State Pension that keeps pace with wages instead of gaining on them year after year.

Where to get help

Pension Plain explains how the rules work. It does not give financial advice, and nothing here takes account of your own circumstances.

Pension Plain is not authorised or regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. This is information, not advice.

Sources

Last updated 4 November 2026

Written by

James Heppe-Smith is the editor of Pension Plain. He founded The Savvy Investor’s Guide and writes about UK pensions, ISAs, SIPPs and tax-efficient saving. Pension Plain reflects his preference for primary sources and plain English over jargon. He is not an FCA-regulated adviser and Pension Plain does not provide regulated financial advice.

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